Tuesday, February 21, 2006

INTRODUCTION TO FOREX

Forex Market

Forex (Foreign Exchange) is the name given to the "direct access" trading of foreign currencies. With an average daily volume of $1.4 trillion, forex is 46 times larger than all the futures markets combined and, for that reason, is the world's most liquid market. In the past, forex trading was limited largely to enormous money center banks and other institutional traders. But in just the past few years, technological innovations and the development of online trading platforms allow small traders to take advantage of the significant benefits of trading foreign currencies with forex.

In contrast to the world's stock markets, foreign exchange is traded without the constraints of a central physical exchange. Transactions are instead conducted via telephone or online. With this transaction structure as its foundation, the Foreign Exchange Market has become by far the largest marketplace in the world.

Buying and Selling

In the forex market, currencies are always priced and traded in pairs. You simultaneously buy one currency and sell another, but you can determine which pair of currencies you wish to trade. For example, if you believe the value of the euro is going to increase vis-á-vis the U.S. Dollar, then you would go long on EUR/USD instrument (currency pair). Obviously, the objective of forex currency trading is to exchange one currency for another in the expectation that the market rate or price will change so that the currency you bought has increased its value relative to the one you sold. If you have bought a currency and the price appreciates in value, then you must sell the currency back in order to lock in the profit. An open trade or position is one in which a trader has either bought / sold one currency pair and has not sold / bought back the equivalent amount to effectively close the position.

Market Conventions

Market conventions are rules and standards imposed by a governing body. In case of decentralized forex market these conventions might differ due to many national regulators (FSA, FSC, CFTC, NFA, BCSC, etc.). Since there is no central governing body that sets forex market rules and standards, we will reference only these that are universal.

Quoting Conventions

The first currency in the pair is referred to as the base currency, and the second currency is the counter or quote currency. The U.S Dollar is usually the base currency for quotes, and includes USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD. The exceptions are the Euro (EUR), Great Britain Pound (GBP), and Australian Dollar (AUD). As with all financial products, forex quotes include a "bid" and "ask", which is more often called "offer" in the forex market. The bid is the price at which a forex market maker is willing to buy (and you can sell) the base currency in exchange for the counter currency. The offer is the price at which a forex market maker will sell (and you can buy) the base currency in exchange for the counter currency. The difference between the bid and the offer price is referred to as the spread.

Orders and Positions

When you want to open a position you need to place an "entry" order. If and when the entry order executes, the position becomes "open" and starts its life on the market. At one point in time, you will place an "exit" order to "close" the position. A position can be "long" (entry order is to buy and exit order is to sell an instrument) or "short" (entry order is to sell and exit order is to buy an instrument).

At the point when you place your entry order, you need to define price level at which you want to buy or sell certain instrument. You also need to specify type of the order and quantity of the instrument you want to trade. There are 3 order types:

Market Order

Placing a market order means that you will buy at your broker's current "ask" (or "offer") price, or sell at your broker's current "bid" price, whatever that price currently is. For example, suppose you are buying EUR/USD. The current market, as quoted by your broker is 1.2934 / 1.2938. This means that your broker is willing to buy EUR/USD from you at 1.2934, and sell it to you at 1.2938.

Stop Order

Initiating a trade with a stop order means that you will only open a position if the market moves in the direction you are anticipating. For example, if USD/JPY is currently 108.72 and you believe it will move higher, you could place a stop order to buy at 108.82. This means that the order will only be executed if the market moves up to 108.82. The advantage is that if you are wrong and the market moves straight down, you will not have bought (because 108.82 will never have been reached). The disadvantage is that 108.82 is clearly a less attractive rate at which to buy than 108.72. Opening a position with a stop order is usually appropriate if you wish to trade only with strong market momentum in a particular direction.

Limit Order

A limit order is an order to buy below the current price, or sell above the current price. For example, if EUR/USD is trading at 1.2952 / 56 and you believe the market will rise, you could place a limit order to buy at 1.2945. If executed, this will give you a long position in EUR/USD at 1.2945, which is 11 pips better than if you had just bought EUR/USD with a market order. The disadvantage of the limit order is that if EUR/USD moves straight up from 1.2952 / 56, your limit at 1.2945 will never be filled and you will miss out on the profit opportunity even though your view on the direction of EUR/USD was correct. Opening a position with a limit order is usually appropriate if you believe that the market will remain in a range before moving in your anticipated direction, allowing the order to be filled first.

For both entry and exits orders you can specify price levels at which you want them to be executed. You have to specify entry levels when you place you entry order, while most brokers would allow you to specify exit levels at any time.

Calculating Profit

The objective of forex currency trading is to exchange one currency for another in the expectation that the market rate or price will change so that the currency you bought has increased its value relative to the one you sold. If you have bought a currency and the price appreciates in value, then you must sell the currency back in order to lock in the profit.

Let us assume that you open a long position by buying USD/JPY for 107.58 (quantity of 100000) and few hours after that, you close the position by selling USD/JPY for 107.74 (quantity of 100000). These two trades would bring you profit of (107.74 - 107.58) * 100000 = JPY 16000 (JPY is the counter or quote currency in the USD/JPY pair). You can than convert the profit to a currency you like, for example JPY 16000 = 16000 / 107.74 = USD 148.51.

We can also say that these two trades would bring you 16 "pips" profit. A "pip" is the smallest increment in any instrument. For asset types other than forex, the smallest increment is often called "tick". In EUR/USD one pip is 0.0001, in USD/JPY one pip is 0.01. Expressing position profits in pips is often very useful for quick calculations and estimates.

One pip, from the example above, would bring you 0.01 * 100000 = JPY 1000 profit, or JPY 1000 = 1000 / 107.74 = USD 9.28.

Monday, February 20, 2006

History of Forex Market

The Foreign Exchange market, also referred to as the "Forex" or "FX" market is the largest financial market in the world, with a daily average turnover of US$1.9 trillion -- 30 times larger than the combined volume of all U.S. equity markets.

"Foreign Exchange" is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another. Currencies are traded in pairs, for example Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD) or US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY).

There are two reasons to buy and sell currencies. About 5% of daily turnover is from companies and governments that buy or sell products and services in a foreign country or must convert profits made in foreign currencies into their domestic currency. The other 95% is trading for profit, or speculation.

For speculators, the best trading opportunities are with the most commonly traded (and therefore most liquid) currencies, called "the Majors." Today, more than 85% of all daily transactions involve trading of the Majors, which include the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar.

A true 24-hour market, Forex trading begins each day in Sydney, and moves around the globe as the business day begins in each financial center, first to Tokyo, London, and New York. Unlike any other financial market, investors can respond to currency fluctuations caused by economic, social and political events at the time they occur - day or night.

The FX market is considered an Over The Counter (OTC) or 'interbank' market, due to the fact that transactions are conducted between two counterparts over the telephone or via an electronic network. Trading is not centralized on an exchange, as with the stock and futures markets.


Understanding Margin

Trading currencies on margin lets you increase your buying power. Here's a simplified example: If you have $2,000 cash in a margin account that allows 100:1 leverage, you could purchase up to $200,000 worth of currency-because you only have to post 1% of the purchase price as collateral. Another way of saying this is that you have $200,000 in buying power.

Benefits of Margin

With more buying power, you can increase your total return on investment with less cash outlay. To be sure, trading on margin magnifies your profits AND your losses.
Here's a hypothetical example that demonstrates the upside of trading on margin:


With a US$5,000 balance in your margin account, you decide that the US Dollar (USD) is undervalued against the Swiss Franc (CHF).

To execute this strategy, you must buy Dollars (simultaneously selling Francs), and then wait for the exchange rate to rise.

The current bid/ask price for USD/CHF is 1.2322/1.2327 (meaning you can buy $1 US for 1.2327 Swiss Francs or sell $1 US for 1.2322 francs)

Your available leverage is 100:1 or 1%. You execute the trade, buying a one lot: buying 100,000 US dollars and selling 123,270 Swiss Francs.

At 100:1 leverage, your initial margin deposit for this trade is $1,000. Your account balance is now $4000.

As you expected, USD/CHF rises to 1.2415/20. You can now sell $1 US for 1.2415 Francs or buy $1 US for 1.2420 Francs. Since you're long dollars (and are short francs), you must now sell dollars and buy back the francs to realize any profit.

You close out the position, selling one lot (selling 100,000 US dollars and receiving 124,150 CHF) Since you originally sold (paid) 123,270 CHF, your profit is 880 CHF.

To calculate your P&L in terms of US dollars, simply divide 880 by the current USD/CHF rate of 1.2415. Your profit on this trade is $708.82

SUMMARY
Initial Investment: $1000
Profit: $708.82
Return on investment: 70.8%

If you had executed this trade without using leverage, your return on investment would be less than 1%.

Managing a Margin Account

Trading on margin can be a profitable investment strategy, but it's important that you take the time to understand the risks.

* You should make sure you fully understand how your margin account works. Be sure to read the margin agreement between you and your clearing firm. Talk to your account representative if you have any questions.

* The positions in your account could be partially or totally liquidated should the available margin in your account fall below a predetermined threshold.

* You may not receive a margin call before your positions are liquidated.

You should monitor your margin balance on a regular basis and utilize stop-loss orders on every open position to limit downside risk.

Order Types

Orders may be entered at any rate - inside or outside the existing spread - using the following order types:

* Limit orders
An order with restrictions on the maximum price to be paid or the minimum price to be received.

If a trader is long USD/CHF at 1.4627, a limit order would be entered to sell dollars above that price, for example, at 1.4800.

* Stop Loss orders
Order type whereby an open position is automatically liquidated at a specific price. Often used to minimize exposure to losses if the market moves against an investor's position.

If the trader above is long USD at 1.4627, a stop loss order could be left at 1.4549, in case the dollar depreciates below 1.4549.

As a rule, sell stops are filled on our bid, and buy stops are filled on our offer. This allows FOREX.com to fill client stop orders at the rate they requested in almost every case. In the rare instance that the market gaps over a requested rate, the stop is filled at the best available price. This is an important point for traders who are accustomed to being filled on sell stops when the offer reaches the requested order rate. For example, if a stop order is placed to sell USD/CHF at 1.4549, the trader will be filled when the bid reaches 1.4549 (i.e. the bid/offer is 1.4549/54).

* One Cancels Other orders (OCO's)
A contingent order providing that one part of the order is cancelled if the other part is executed. This is a particularly useful order type in that it allows traders to execute specific trading strategies based on technical analysis - without having to watch the market tick by tick.

As above, with the trader long USD/CHF at 1.4627, a typical OCO order would be a stop loss at 1.4562 and a limit (take profit) at 1.4700. If one part of the order is filled, the other is automatically cancelled.

* If / Then Single
A conditional order providing that if the first order ("If" order) is executed, the second order ("Then" order) is activated as a live, single order.

In cases where the If order does not execute, the Then single order will remain dormant. When either part of an If / Then order is cancelled, all parts of the order are cancelled as well.

An example of an If / Then single order would be to first place an 'If' limit order to buy EUR/USD at 1.0690, fifty points below the current market rate of 1.0740. The 'Then' part of the order would be a limit sell order to take profit at 1.0770 (eighty pips above the 'If' order execution rate of 1.0690). If the market dips to 1.0690 the 'If' order will execute and the 'Then' leg of the order will become active. Note: the 'Then' order could also have been a stop loss order at 1.0650 (forty pips below the execution rate of 1.0690).

* If /Then OCO
A conditional order providing that if the first order ("If" order) is executed, the second order ("Then" order) is activated as a live, One Cancels Other (OCO) order. Full description of an OCO order. The execution of either one of the two 'Then' orders automatically cancels the other.

In cases where the 'If' single order does not execute, the 'Then' OCO order will remain dormant. When any part of an If / Then OCO order is cancelled, including either leg of the OCO order, all parts of the order are cancelled as well.

An example of an If / Then OCO order would be to first place an 'If' limit order to buy USD/JPY at 118.80, fifty points below the current market rate of 119.30. The 'Then' part of the order would be an OCO order: one leg of the OCO could be a limit sell order to take profit at 119.60, (eighty pips above the execution rate of 118.80) the other leg a stop loss order to sell at 118.50 (thirty points below the execution rate). If the market reaches 118.80, the 'If' single order is executed, and the 'Then' OCO order is activated. If activated, the execution of either leg of the 'Then' OCO order automatically cancels the other.

All of the above orders may be entered as Day Orders, entered today and good until end of NY business day (1700 ET). Or, clients may choose to may enter a Good 'til Cancelled Order (GTC), which is valid until the order is executed or cancelled. Orders remain open until they are triggered or cancelled. If you close out a position manually, you must cancel any order(s) relating to that position.

Sunday, February 19, 2006

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The trading of foreign currency involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of principal plus other losses and may not be suitable for all investors. You should make an independent judgment as to weather trading in foreign currency contracts is appropriate for you in light of your financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance, and other relevant factors.




A brief history of FOREX market

The Breton Woods Agreement was initiated in 1944 in an effort to keep cash from draining out of war-ravaged Europe. Currency values were pegged to the U.S. Dollar, which was then pegged to the price of gold. The modern era of foreign exchange first emerged in 1971 with the collapse of the Bretton Woods Agreement. The U.S. Dollar was no longer convertible into gold, signaling an increase in currency market volatility and trading opportunities.

The collapse in 1973 of the subsequent Smithsonian and European Joint Float agreements signaled the true beginning of the free-floating currency exchange system that drives the markets today. Starting in the 1980’s, computer technology extended the reach of the exchange marketplace. Today, the values of the major world currencies are independent of each other, with intervention available to the states only through the central banking system.



Foreign Exchange Markets – size and scope

The foreign exchange market dwarfs the combined operations of the New York, London, and Tokyo futures and stock exchanges. Daily turnover on the spot market is approximately US$1.5 trillion per day.

Spot transactions and forward outright FX trading takes place in the inter-bank market. 51% of the market is in spot FX transactions, followed by 32% in currency swap transactions. Forward outright FX transactions represent another 5% of this daily turnover. Options on inter-bank FX transactions making up another 8%. Therefore the inter-bank market accounts for 96% of the global foreign exchange market, with the remaining 4% being divided among all the global futures exchanges.


The role of Forex in the Global Economy

Over time, the foreign exchange market has been an invisible hand that guides the sale of goods, services and raw materials on every corner of the globe. The forex market was created by necessity. Traders, bankers, investors, importers and exporters recognized the benefits of hedging risk, or speculating for profit. The fascination with this market comes from its sheer size, complexity and almost limitless reach of influence.

The market has its own momentum, follows its own imperatives, and arrives at its own conclusions. These conclusions impact the value of all assets - it is crucial for every individual or institutional investor to have an understanding of the foreign exchange markets and the forces behind this ultimate free-market system.

Inter-bank currency contracts and options, unlike futures contracts, are not traded on exchanges and are not standardized. Banks and dealers act as principles in these markets, negotiating each transaction on an individual basis. Forward "cash" or "spot" trading in currencies is substantially unregulated - there are no limitations on daily price movements or speculative positions.

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Forex Market
The Foreign Exchange market, also referred to as the "Forex" or "FX" market, is the largest financial market in the world, with a daily average turnover of approximately US$1.5 trillion. In comparison, the daily volume of the New York Stock Exchange is approximately US$30 billion per day.

Until now, professional traders from major international commercial and investment banks have dominated the FX market. Other market participants range from large multinational corporations, global money managers, registered dealers, international money brokers, and futures and options traders, to private speculators.

There are three main reasons to participate in the FX market. One is to facilitate an actual transaction, whereby international corporations convert profits made in foreign currencies into their domestic currency. Corporate treasurers and money managers also enter the FX market in order to hedge against unwanted exposure to future price movements in the currency market. The third and more popular reason is speculation for profit. In fact, today it is estimated that less than 5% of all trading on the FX market is actually facilitating a true commercial transaction.

How It Works
Foreign Exchange is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another. The world's currencies are on a floating exchange rate and are always traded in pairs, for example Euro/Dollar or Dollar/Yen. In trading parlance, a long position is one in which a trader buys a currency at one price and aims to sell it later at a higher price. A short position is one in which the trader sells a currency in anticipation that it will depreciate. In every open position, an investor is long in one currency and shorts the other. FX traders express a position in terms of the first currency in the pair. For example, someone who has bought dollars and sold yen (USD/JPY) at 104.37 is considered to be long US Dollars and short Yen.

The most often traded or 'liquid' currencies are those of countries with stable governments, respected central banks, and low inflation. Today, over 85% of all daily transactions involve trading of the major currencies, including the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar.

The FX market is considered an Over The Counter (OTC) or 'Interbank' market, due to the fact that transactions are conducted between two counterparts over the telephone or via an electronic network. Trading is not centralized on an exchange, as with the stock and futures markets. A true 24-hour market, Forex trading begins each day in Sydney, and moves around the globe as the business day begins in each financial center, first to Tokyo, London, and New York. Unlike any other financial market, investors can respond to currency fluctuations caused by economic, social and political events at the time they occur - day or night.

Factors Affecting the Market
Currency prices are affected by a variety of economic and political conditions, most importantly interest rates, inflation and political stability. Moreover, governments sometimes participate in the Forex market to influence the value of their currencies, either by flooding the market with their domestic currency in an attempt to lower the price, or conversely buying in order to raise the price. This is known as Central Bank intervention. Any of these factors, as well as large market orders, can cause high volatility in currency prices. However, the size and volume of the Forex market makes it impossible for any one entity to "drive" the market for any length of time.

Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis
Currency traders make decisions using both technical factors and economic fundamentals. Technical traders use charts, trend lines, support and resistance levels, and numerous patterns and mathematical analyses to identify trading opportunities, whereas fundamentalists predict price movements by interpreting a wide variety of economic information, including news, government-issued indicators and reports, and even rumor.

The most dramatic price movements however, occur when unexpected events happen. The event can range from a Central Bank raising domestic interest rates to the outcome of a political election or even an act of war. Nonetheless, more often it is the expectations surrounding an event that drives the market rather than the event itself.

Buying and Selling
In the forex market, currencies are always priced and traded in pairs. You simultaneously buy one currency and sell another, but you can determine which pair of currencies you wish to trade. For example, if you believe the value of the euro is going to increase vis-á-vis the U.S. Dollar, then you would go long on EUR/USD instrument (currency pair). Obviously, the objective of forex currency trading is to exchange one currency for another in the expectation that the market rate or price will change so that the currency you bought has increased its value relative to the one you sold. If you have bought a currency and the price appreciates in value, then you must sell the currency back in order to lock in the profit. An open trade or position is one in which a trader has either bought / sold one currency pair and has not sold / bought back the equivalent amount to effectively close the position.

Market Conventions
Market conventions are rules and standards imposed by a governing body. In case of decentralized forex market these conventions might differ due to many national regulators (FSA, FSC, CFTC, NFA, BCSC, etc.). Since there is no central governing body that sets forex market rules and standards, we will reference only these that are universal.

Quoting Conventions
The first currency in the pair is referred to as the base currency, and the second currency is the counter or quote currency. The U.S Dollar is usually the base currency for quotes, and includes USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD. The exceptions are the Euro (EUR), Great Britain Pound (GBP), and Australian Dollar (AUD). As with all financial products, forex quotes include a "bid" and "ask", which is more often called "offer" in the forex market. The bid is the price at which a forex market maker is willing to buy (and you can sell) the base currency in exchange for the counter currency. The offer is the price at which a forex market maker will sell (and you can buy) the base currency in exchange for the counter currency. The difference between the bid and the offer price is referred to as the spread.